Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 23 Jun 2010 06:00 to Thu 24 Jun 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 22 Jun 2010 23:05
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for W Turkey, E-Bulgaria, E-Romania, parts of Moldova and most parts of Ukraine mainly for excessive rainfall and to a lesser extent for isolated large hail.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

In the range of an upper low over SE-Europe, a warm and moist air mass still covers the Black Sea and adjacent western coastlines. Shear is weak with 500 - 1000 J/kg MLCAPE available, so despite isolated strong updrafts, nothing organized is forecast. Nevertheless, rapid clustering will take place with a local risk of intense rainfall amounts. Marginal hail (locally reaching the severe criterion) and strong wind gust also accompany stronger storms.

The rest of Europe (west/central) feels the influence of the eastward building, weak ridge. BL air mass needs more time to recover, so no deep convection is expected.