Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 22 May 2010 06:00 to Sun 23 May 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 22 May 2010 01:58
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

The pressure pattern consists of a high over the southern UK and a low slowly moving away to the east over Turkey. In a large region between these systems, mainly over central and southeastern Europe, an unstable airmass is present in a northerly flow. The largest MLCAPE values are predicted over Poland (roughly around 1000 J/kg). Mid-level shortwave troughs that could activate convection in slightly unstable air are found on the south side of the Pyrenees, southern Scandinavia, southern Finland, and major lifting should occur over Turkey. Vertical wind shear and storm motion are weak/slow over central Europe. Stronger deep layer shear and helicity occur over southern/eastern Turkey and Cyprus, and a chance of supercells and/or a windy MCS is present for that area, off the map. Only over northeastern Spain there is quite decent vertical shear, but instability is marginal and confined to a small area.
Poland and Czech Republic may see slow moving and locally training storms, which can ride the north side of orographic features like the Tatra and produce locally large sums of rain. It is not sure these would meet level 1 criteria. Given rather large 0-3 km CAPE and weak flow, an isolated spout-type tornado cannot be ruled out.