Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 24 Apr 2010 06:00 to Sun 25 Apr 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 24 Apr 2010 02:59
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

A zone of weak surface-based CAPE is present along and south of the 12°C 0-1 km theta-w isotherm, which is the approximate position of a stationary front between the Mediterranean low and high pressure over central Europe / S Scandinavia. Predicted ML-CAPE values are very low, and forcing weak, so most convection will develop over higher terrain and be rather short-lived and unorganized. In several areas the CAPE is confined to lower levels and marginal in the mixed layer temperature region (-10° to -30°C), limiting lightning activity and hail growth.
Despite the marginal instability, there are three region where troughs provide significant lifting: the N Belarus / W Russia area (strong mid level vorticity maximum), S Italy, and Ireland late in the period.