Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 23 Apr 2010 06:00 to Sat 24 Apr 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 22 Apr 2010 17:13
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Split flow regime continues over Europe with unsettled conditions for most parts of the Mediterranean. Embedded in this environment, an high-level trough settles down over the central Mediterranean. CAA and attendant cold/dry LL airmass over N/parts of NE-Europe precludes any more serious thunderstorm threat although some regions may see augmented shower/thunderstorm activity beneath steep mid-level lapse rates.

None of those thunderstorm regions will see organized/long-lived storms with slim CAPE/weak shear at best. Marginal hail and strong wind gusts accompany those storms. We may see an extensive area with numerous spots of isolated to scattered lightning, also beyond the thunderstorm boundaries. The highest coverage ought to occur in those thunderstorm areas however.

An augmented spout risk may arise along the east coast of Spain after 12 UTC, as LL moisture recovery will be underway with some LL CAPE build-up. Overall set-up is not the best with ongoing model discrepancies, so no level 1 was issued.

A second area may see an isolated organized storm - parts of Sicily. However, the upper low becomes stationary northwest of Sicily with various model solutions while weakening, so CAPE will be the main issue in respect of a limited thunderstorm coverage. However, shear may assist in a few more organized storms with large hail and severe wind gusts. An upgrade may become necessary with later model runs.