Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 11 Apr 2010 06:00 to Mon 12 Apr 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 10 Apr 2010 22:29
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

An upper cut-off low centered over Austria moves eastward towards N Italy during the period. In the vicinity of the upper cold core, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms may develop over S Germany and parts of Austria and Hungary.

At the southern flank of the low, some low-end instability should be created over central / southern Italy during the day in the vicinity of a 35 m/s upper jet streak. Deep layer shear in order of 15 m/s is in place and may allow some briefly organised multicells. SRH is locally augmented and an isolated tornado is not ruled out. Thunderstorm evolution should start in the early afternoon when the region is affected by an upper vort-max and will decrease after sunset as most of the instability is confined to the boundary layer.

Another upper trough affects the eastern Mediterranean during Sunday afternoon. Near the trough axis, a few hundred J/kg CAPE will be available in an environment with locally enhanced deep layer shear. A multicell line or a MCS may form with strong to severe wind gusts as main threat. As the storms move eastwards, increasing shear and forcing will lead to an enhanced threat of severe wind gusts over S Turkey and Cyprus during the late evening / night hours. Isolated large hail and a tornado should be possible as well. As this region is not shown on our forecast area, no threat level has been issued.