Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 10 Apr 2010 06:00 to Sun 11 Apr 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 09 Apr 2010 20:19
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Between an upper ridge over the British Isles and another high pressure system over western Russia, an upper cut-off low over the Baltic Sea will move to the west / southwest across western Poland / eastern Germany and the Czech Republic towards eastern Austria. In the vicinity of its upper cold-core, showers and briefly organised thunderstorms may develop during the day as diurnal heating will lead to a few hundred J/kg CAPE.

Near the southern tip of this low, instability should be best over Romania and W Bulgaria. GFS expects some hundred J/kg CAPE, but deep layer shear should be less than 10 m/s over a large area. An isolated marginally large hail / severe wind gust event is not ruled out but the confidence is too low for a level 1.

Over the central Mediterranean, moderately cold air will remain at upper levels, leading to some low-end instability over Italy / Ionian Sea / S Adriatic. Calm winds and steep lapse rates may allow an isolated waterspout but overall threat will probably stay below the level 1 threshold.