Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 23 Mar 2010 09:00 to Wed 24 Mar 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 23 Mar 2010 09:05
Forecaster: KOROSEC

SYNOPSIS

A weak upper level cut off low over central Mediterranean makes only a slow progress eastwards during the forecast period. Over western Europe, a new trough with an attendant cold front approaches NW-ern Iberia. Another short-wave trough crosses Baltic states during the second half of the period. Stable conditions persist over the rest of Europe.

DISCUSSION

... south-central Mediterranean towards southern Greece...

As the upper low makes its slow movement to the east, mostly diurnal driven convection is likely to form over the land. Models predict a few hundreds of MLCAPE under the cooling midlevels. Only weakly sheared evironment does not support any storm organization, so severe weather is not expected. Slow moving cells near the coasts could lead into a few waterspouts.

... Baltic states ...

A short-wave trough with a well defined surface depression crosses the region during the afternoon and night hours. Rather cold mid-levels and steep lapse rates should lead into marginal instability along the moving cold front. With strong QG forcing and DLS in place, organized cells/line are possible with threat for strong wind gusts. However, low coverage does not warrant a level 1.

... NW Iberian Peninsula ...

As the trough/front approaches NW Spain overnight to Wednesday, some destabilization may occur along this front. Moderately sheared environment could support storm organization and locally an enhanced convective rainfall or wind gusts could occur. Given the also enhanced helicity and LL shear, a tornado threat could exist, more likely near the coast.