Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 22 Mar 2010 06:00 to Tue 23 Mar 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 22 Mar 2010 00:00
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS

An upper cut-off low enters the W Mediterranean on Monday morning, moving towards Italy. Over central Europe, conditions will become more stable as an upper ridge approaches from SW Europe. Over the North Atlantic, a large low pressure system affects Ireland, the British Isles and Iceland during the period.

DISCUSSION

...N Ireland, Scotland...

Near the upper cold core of an embedded trough west of Ireland, upper level cooling will lead to a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Strong QG forcing and enhanced deep layer shear (20 - 30 m/s) may lead to a narrow convective line that will cross the area from the west to the east during the morning / afternoon. Some isolated convectively enhanced wind gusts are expected to occur but a level 1 seems not warranted, though.

...SE Spain, N Algeria, Sardinia...

Ahead of the upper low over the SW Mediterranean, some low-end instability should be available in the morning / afternoon hours. Deep layer shear is considerably weak and besides an isolated waterspout, severe weather is unlikely.