Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 18 Mar 2010 06:00 to Fri 19 Mar 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 17 Mar 2010 16:52
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

A broad ridge over northern Africa yields a south-westerly flow across western Europe and associated warm air advection, while the amplified long-wave trough over eastern Europe moves eastward. Along the periphery of this trough, a frontal zone stretches from central Scandinavia to the western Black Sea. Models predict precipitation along this warm front, but deep moist convection is not expected given the rather dry boundary layer and mostly stable stratification. While high pressure leads to large-scale sinking across the Mediterranean and Central Europe in the range of the warm air, low pressure over the Atlantic will enter western Europe late in the period. While the air masses over the north-western regions will likely be stable due to the cold sea surface, rather rich low-level moisture will be advected into western Iberia and the Bay of Biscay. Given the rather warm mid-level air ahead of the trough, deep moist convection is unlikely, but some shallow convection may be embedded in the stratiform precipitation and isolated lightning is not completely ruled out.