Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 14 Mar 2010 06:00 to Mon 15 Mar 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 13 Mar 2010 23:19
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A strong northwesterly upper flow has established over most portions of W-central Europe between an upper ridge over the North Atlantic and an upper trough over northern Scandinavia. In the cold polar airmass over the Norwegian Sea, some isolated showers and weakly electrified thunderstorms are possible. The extremely low amount of low level moisture (mixing ratio between 1 - 2 g/kg) precludes a medium probability thunderstorm area.

Another region with possible convection in cold air but little chances of lightning is central Spain and the SW Mediterranean. The associated upper cut-off low is forecast to move southward and to dissipate over N Algeria on Sunday evening.

Best chances for isolated thunderstorms should be over the S-central Mediterranean / Ionian Sea where a few hundred J/kg CAPE are expected. Locally, deep layer shear may exceed 20 - 25 m/s and a few storms may become more organised. Besides the chance of an isolated waterspout, severe weather will be unlikely.