Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 06 Mar 2010 06:00 to Sun 07 Mar 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 06 Mar 2010 03:39
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for S Portugal, SW Spain and N Morocco for a chance of excessive convective precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

At mean sea level, a high pressure area is situated between Ireland and southern Sweden/Finland. Low pressure near the Alps and east of the Balkan, as well as southwest of the Iberian Peninsula. In the mid levels (700-500 hPa), the major high is west of Ireland and a large upper trough over central Europe, with shortwave troughs over Germany/Alps/Italy and southern Balkan, and eastern Ukraine. Warm air in mid levels has been pushed down to Mediterranean latitudes, while colder air has entered with the low that sunk into Germany. It will expand deeper into Europe the next days.

DISCUSSION

...Germany, Alps..

Some very weak instability present, EL heights colder than -30°C level. Scarce lightning flashes were detected and with a bit of diurnal warming and orographic lift or triggering a few more flashes could occur.

... S Portugal, SW Spain and N Morocco...

Quite good MLCAPE for this season (>700 J/kg) and forcing by an upper shortwave trough and coastal convergence should result in a reasonable density of storms in the area. Relatively slow motion of cells will help local precipitation amounts. Once more, local floods are possible, certainly because the ground is still saturated. An isolated waterspout may also occur.