Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 04 Mar 2010 06:00 to Fri 05 Mar 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 03 Mar 2010 19:21
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

A broad trough over Europe amplifies into south-western Europe on Thursday. To the south of this trough, a strong mid-level jet affects the Mediterranean Sea. An embedded short-wave trough will travel eastward across Italy and the Aegean Sea. At lower levels, a cold front that travels eastward will likely slow down over the Aegean Sea as the low-level flow becomes more southerly in the range of the negatively tilted short-wave trough. In the range of this cold front, a tongue of rather moist low-level air is forecast by latest models. Models indicate that instability is very weak given warm air masses ahead of the boundary layer. As the cold front occlusion slows down over the Aegean, strong forcing will likely lead to mid-level cooling and associated instability.

DISCUSSION

Aegean and western Turkey

Along the cold front that becomes orientated more parallel to the mid-level flow, QG forcing and lift ahead of the Turkish coasts may lead to sufficient mid-level cooling and increasing instability as indicated by latest models. This will result in deep moist convection along cold front occlusion. Rather strong southerly winds reaching 25 m/s at the 850 hPa level may be favorable for some storm organization, but weak low-level buoyancy as well as weak veering profiles will limit the potential. Additionally, a quite high amount of precipitation may be possible along the coasts of north-western Turkey latest models do not indicate that severe limits warranting a level 1 will be reached.