Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 21 Feb 2010 06:00 to Mon 22 Feb 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 21 Feb 2010 05:42
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK
No threat levels have been issued.
SYNOPSIS
A strong westerly upper flow has established over the NE Atlantic with a shortwave trough approaching Iberia on Sunday morning. Ahead of the trough, very moist and mild air is advected into large portions of SW Europe.
Another trough is centered over E-central Europe with its southern tip over the S Adriatic, moving eastwards during the period. In between both troughs, a small ridge is present over France and the W-central Mediterranean.
Over the NE Atlantic / Norwegian Sea, some showers and thunderstorms are forecast in a weakly sheared environment. Severe weather appears unlikely and lightning may be very sparse.
DISCUSSION
...SW / S Iberia...
A region with some hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the trough is advected towards SW Portugal / S Spain. There is some overlap of instability with 15 - 20 m/s deep layer shear, but overall SRH is below 100 mē/sē in this area. Nevertheless, one can't rule out an isolated tornado and / or a marginally severe hail event. Later in the period, this feature will also affect the W Mediterranean.
...E Greece, Aegean Sea, W / SW Turkey...
A few hundred J/kg CAPE will be located in the vicinity of the upper cold core, most of it in an environment with less than 15 m/s deep layer shear. Severe weather will be rather unlikely but an isolated waterspout may occur over the E Aegean Sea where winds are relatively calm.
