Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 15 Feb 2010 06:00 to Tue 16 Feb 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 14 Feb 2010 21:39
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of the Black Sea mainly for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Our habitué, the persistent European polar vortex, retreats northwards and clears the way for a warmer, SW-erly flow over SW/W Europe. Therefore, a transition day ahead with only regional thunderstorm chances. A few offshore storms could also occur beneath the sphere of a cold-core low over Scotland/UK and Ireland, but the activity will be too marginal for any highlighting.

DISCUSSION

.... S-Portugal and the Strait of Gibraltar ...

A splash of subtropical air affects the highlighted area with widespread convection repeatedly developing during the day. Phase diagrams show a shallow warm core feature west of SW-Portugal, which gradually moves to the east. Typical with such features are marginal lapse rates at mid-levels although at this time, the mid-levels are still cool enough for widespread 6-7K/km atop the very moist/warm BL. This set-up causes moderate SBCAPE build-up mainly offshore with peaks well above 500 J/kg possible. LCLs are down to near 500m and a short spin-up along outflow intersections or beneath stronger updrafts is possible. Otherwise shear is too weak for anything organized. Due to the slow storm motion and high PWAT air mass, locally high rain amounts are possible, but model data does not yet support a level 1 for now.

.... Central Black Sea until 12 UTC...

Departing depression draws a cold front with a few thunderstorms to the NE, before dropping out of the forecast area after noon. Severe wind gusts are well possible with 850hPa winds between 20-25m/s and a level 1 was issued.