Forecast Update
Valid: Fri 12 Feb 2010 18:00 to Sat 13 Feb 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 12 Feb 2010 18:46
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 2 was issued for W-Turkey and NE-Greece mainly for tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
A level 1 was issued, surrounding the level 2 mainly for severe wind gusts, large hail and high rain amounts.
A level 1 was issued for the Tyrrhenian Sea, parts of S-Italy and S-Adriatic/N-Ionian Sea mainly for tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for NW-Morocco mainly for excessive rainfall.
SYNOPSIS
Please refer to the main outlook.
DISCUSSION
... NE-Aegean Sea, W/NW Turkey, NE Greece and SE/E-
Bulgaria ...
The main reason for updating was the expansion of the level areas over those regions to the north/northeast. The same for the thunderstorm area.
Rapidly deepening surface depression is forecast to move trough Bulgaria into central Romania until 06Z. Impressive kinematics along its eastern fringe force a warm front rapidly to the north/northeast. A warm, moist and unstable warm sector therefore expands further north as previously thought. Despite a cool BL with surface readings in the singles over Bulgaria, strong forcing and lift ought to support thunderstorms well inland, although becoming more elevated betimes. Another ingredient, assisting in elevated storms more inland is a well structured dry slot, working its way rapidly to the northeast. Its tip crosses the moist and warm surface warm front and that's the area, where potential instability may be released far to the N/NE. This scenario is currently seen over the far N-Aegean Sea.
We expanded the level 2 a little bit more to the NW. Tornadoes, severe to damaging wind gusts and large hail are all expected with those storms. We upgraded parts of S/SE-Bulgaria to a level 1 mainly for isolated large hail and strong to severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado risk may exist, but BL becomes more stable, so the risk will decrease further inland.
Most parts of the western Black Sea were upgraded due to a severe wind gust risk with isolated thunderstorms, as 850hPa winds increase to well above 25m/s.
Not much was changed for the rest of the outlook.
