Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 10 Feb 2010 06:00 to Thu 11 Feb 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 09 Feb 2010 23:02
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for Western Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

A blocking pattern has established over Europe with a deep trough stretching from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean, while to the west a ridge is observed over the Atlantic, its axis lying over Iceland. Between these two features, in strong northerly to northeasterly flow, cold advection is underway with arctic airmass invading southern France and Northwestern Mediterranean. This, in combination with mid-level impulse will result in the deepening of the surface cyclone over the Central Mediterranean, which is expected to slowly progress to the Northeast and by Thursday 06 UTC, its center is expected to lie over the Adriatic Sea. Strong flow is simulated around the base of the trough and on the forward flank of the surface and lower tropospheric low.

DISCUSSION

... Western Turkey ...

In several consequent runs, both GFS and ECMWF models are in agreement concerning the heavy rainfall scenario as a tongue of instability is expected to build up close to the western coasts of Turkey. MLCAPE values between 500 - 1000 J/kg are possible thanks to the advection of well-mixed airmass with high lapse rates over the warm and moist sea surface. With the approach of the low and mid-level trough, flow is expected to strenghten and a southerly low level jet is predicted to establish in the region, having windspeeds of 25-30 m/s at 850 hPa level. Synoptic scale forcing, in combination with strong coastal convergence should result in widespread initiation and parallel-stratiform MCS might form in strong southerly to southwesterly flow. Excessive precipitation thanks to the moist tropospheric profiles and a possible long duration of the rainfall will be the primary threat, but thanks to the intense low level shear inland, tornado or marginally severe wind gusts can not be ruled out either - albeit CAPE / shear overlap does not seem to be very large.

... Northern / Northeastern Greece ...

To the north of the Aegean Sea, strong southerly flow will impinge on the sloping terrain, resulting in the strong lift and possibly high rainfall intensities. Contribution of the convection is questionable in this case, although some embedded cells might develop within a broad, stratiform shield and at the moment, no Level is warranted for this region.