Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 06 Feb 2010 06:00 to Sun 07 Feb 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 06 Feb 2010 06:34
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for S Italy, Montenegro, S Croatia, Albania, NW Greece for isolated excessive convective rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for part of France for a small chance of a tornado.

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure is present over France though Greece, filled with unstable air. Shortwave midlevel troughs are over France, Corsica and southern Balkan during the afternoon, as well as Ukraine/Poland. The Mediterranean will see an increase of convection mainly after 18Z. Strong shear rounds the low over France in the south, but convective energy and depth are predicted to be low.

DISCUSSION

... S Italy...

Onshore advection of convection can locally become a problem with respect to rain sums. Storms mainly after 21Z, when the mid level vorticity advection, associated to the shortwave, passes.

...SW Balkan...

Here convection is mostly dragging along the coast in onshore/shore-parallel flow with additional lifting over higher terrain and coastal convergence enhacements. The main time frame should be 06Z-12Z.

...France...

Weak instability appears to be present in a region with >25 m/s 0-6 km shear and 15 m/s 0-1 km shear. Some SREH as well.
While EL seems to be a bit warm/low, a stronger convective cell may develop rotation with a chance of a tornado and hail of 1-2 cm.

...W Corsica and W Sardinia...

The jet overruns instability here, so there is a possibility for interaction between storms and shear. However, instability seems to be scheduled after the lifting from the trough and subsidence may prevail. Otherwise, there is some chance of a tornado. Hodographs may lack curvature, though (low SREH)