Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 31 Jan 2010 06:00 to Mon 01 Feb 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 31 Jan 2010 00:21
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK
A level 1 was issued for Albania and W Greece mainly for severe wind gusts and excessive rainfall and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for W Turkey mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.
SYNOPSIS
A large upper trough with temperatures around -40°C at 500 hPa is centered over the southern Baltic Sea. An upper ridge is present over the central North Atlantic, stretching from the Azores towards Iceland / S Greenland. As a result of this upper flow pattern, cold arctic air has overspread large portions of Europe. At the southern tip of the trough, a 995 hPa surface low moves northeastward over the Dinaric Mountains towards W Ukraine. The polar jet streak stretches from the Balearic Islands towards SW Turkey with wind speeds around 50 m/s at 300 hPa.
DISCUSSION
...Norwegian Sea, E North Sea, NW Germany and Denmark...
In the vicinity of the upper cold core, steep mid level lapse rates over the relatively warm North Sea lead to a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous snow- / hailshowers and weakly electrified thunderstorms are expected, some of them may be accompanied by gusty winds.
...Tyrrhenian Sea, Sicily S Adriatic / Ionian Sea and Albania / W Greece...
Even though CAPE is limited to a few hundred J/kg, strong deep layer shear (20 - 30 m/s) and intense low level winds (20 - 25 m/s) may allow some organised multicells and / or a convective line with strong to severe wind gusts. In parts of Albania and Greece, landfall of convective cells will persist for several hours, leading to local flooding. An isolated tornado is not ruled out as LL shear is quite strong and LCL heights should be low. According to GFS, storms will affect the Tyrrhenian Sea and Sicily in the morning / afternoon hours and S Adriatic, Greece and Albania in the evening / night hours.
...Aegean Sea, SW Turkey, Bosporus region...
Some hundred J/kg CAPE are forecast over the Aegean Sea region and parts of SW Turkey an environment with 20 - 25 m/s deep layer shear and 200 - 300 m²/s² SRH3. A few storms may become supercellular and could produce isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. The severe threat will diminish in the evening hours when the storms move further inland into a region with little CAPE and cold SFC temperatures.
