Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 24 Jan 2010 06:00 to Mon 25 Jan 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 23 Jan 2010 20:22
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

A freezing cold vortex is situated over extreme west Russia/Belarus with a slow southwestward forward motion during the forecast. Needless to say, thunderstorms are not expected in its sphere of influence, despite the coast of Norway, where a very isolated storm is possible due to steep lapse rates / marginal CAPE buildup.

Another trough over west Europe retrogrades towards the southwest with lowering thickness values over SW-Europe and WAA over Sardinia. CAPE is marginal at best and bound to a narrow tongue of better moisture, which ranges from the Strait of Gibraltar to Sardinia. Showers and an isolated thunderstorm produce marginal hail and gusty winds. The Strait of Gibraltar and Sardinia could see some high rain amounts of clustering showers/storms and Sardinia may see an upgrade (for the night hours), if current signs for heavy precipitation persist in later model runs. Low CAPE and attendant slim thunderstorm coverage over the Strait of Gibraltar are too low for a level 1.