Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 23 Jan 2010 06:00 to Sun 24 Jan 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 23 Jan 2010 04:20
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for S Portugal, SW Spain and N Morocco mainly for isolated excessive convective rain.

SYNOPSIS

High pressure over eastern Europe and Russia and weak low pressure over western Europe generates a southeastern flow pattern over most of Europe, converging in a stationary frontal zone along Iberia, NW France and the North Sea, with a cut-off upper low over the UK. At the southern end of the frontal band, an occluding depression with modest CAPE touches southern Iberian Peninsula and Morocco. In the southeast, an upper trough with strong forcing will try to squeeze some convection out of marginal instability near Greece, it might even succeed and yield a sort of MCS given the intense deep low-level convergence signal in GFS.

DISCUSSION

...S Portugal, SW Spain and N Morocco...

Relatively marginal instability but strong lifting should result in some thunderstorms, mainly around the occluded eye of the low, which can be enhanced by coastal convergence. In a few locations this could mean large amounts of rain from persistent convection.