Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 19 Jan 2010 06:00 to Wed 20 Jan 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 18 Jan 2010 22:30
Forecaster: KOROSEC

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Rather calm period continues over Europe, while two areas will see only marginal convective activity - the Bay of Biscay and the eastern Mediterranean.

A short-wave trough with a frontal system enters into western Europe during the day. Weak instability signals are present in the wake of the cold front as cool maritime airmass overspreads the Bay of Biscay. Mainly showers will occur but steepening lapse rates could allow a few electrified cells as well. But given the weak shear present in the wake of the trough, no organized convection is expected. Towards the Wednesday morning, when trough moves more to east, pressure falls and a new disturbance is expected over the western Mediterranean.

As another trough/upper low enters eastern Mediterranean early Tuesday morning, destabilization will slowly continue towards east. Poor shear and only weak instability does not suggest any organized deep convection, while numerous showers and a couple of thunderstorms will form. However, very steep LL lapse rates and weak wind field in the lowest levels favour a couple of waterspouts possible, especially around southern Greece and Aegean sea.