Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 18 Jan 2010 06:00 to Tue 19 Jan 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 17 Jan 2010 20:46
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

The upper low over the eastern Mediterranean will leave our forecast area on Monday morning. Remnants of the unstable airmass near the trough axis will lead to showers and thunderstorms over Crete and parts of the extreme eastern Mediterranean. Another upper trough enters the central Mediterranean from the northwest, leading to destabilisation over the Tyrrhenian Sea. Severe convective weather is not expected on Monday as both instability and shear are not sufficient for organised convective systems. Locally, calm winds and steep LL lapse rates may allow an isolated waterspout over the central / eastern Mediterranean.

Some isolated thunder may also be observed over the Bay of Biscay and the Norwegian Sea in a maritime polar airmass, but lightning activity is probably too weak for a medium probability thunderstorm area.