Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 11 Jan 2010 06:00 to Tue 12 Jan 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 10 Jan 2010 21:39
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Europe remains covered by a cold, continental air mass, featured by low BL moisture content and cold mid-levels. Only a few spots over the Mediterranean will see some thunderstorm chances. Stable and cold conditions continue for the rest of Europe.

DISCUSSION

Mid-levels remain quite cold over the western/central Mediterranean, but the surface air mass has no time to recover / modify, so only patches with some low-end instability are expected. This keeps probabilities for anything organized very low. Isolated, strong rainfall accompanies convection over west Greece, but that's too marginal for a level area.

The area over NW-Spain and N-Portugal will be monitored, if the approaching warm sector reveals a chance for deep convection. The troposphere is warm with weak lapse rates, reducing the thunderstorm probabilities. Also, no advection of high-IPV air atop of the warm/moist mid/low level air mass is forecast. Despite heavy rain chances, missing persistent/deep convection precludes any level iussuance.