Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 01 Jan 2010 06:00 to Sat 02 Jan 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 31 Dec 2009 10:46
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for Sardinia mainly for severe wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for the west coast of central/south Italy mainly for severe wind gusts and isolated tornadoes

A level 1 was issued for parts of SE Europe mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes and excessive rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

Disturbed north-hemispheric pattern continues with a strong branch of the polar vortex, covering most parts of Europe. Europe is divided into a cold-stable northern part and an unstable southern part with showers/thunderstorms zoom in on the Mediterranean and SE-Europe.

DISCUSSION

...The level 1 area ...

A huge upper trough with its base covering all of western/central and parts of eastern Europe is about to cross Europe from west to east during the forecast, reaching SE-Europe during the night. The attendant surface depression has nearly the same proportions and forecast track takes this feature over the Alps towards the east while strengthening. Exact track and especially the strength and placement of the evolving depression feature some uncertainties, which is common with such large-scale pressure features.

Despite those uncertainties, a wide warm sector evolves, with higher CAPE offshore and marginal BL moisture onshore. The main concern arises over Serbia and Montenegro eastwards/southeastwards as it is still unclear how strong moisture return will be. Latest model data hint on a broad swath of minimal CAPE with regionally augmented values. Shear at all levels is augmented and the main reason for this huge level 1 over SE-Europe is an isolated severe wind gust risk with 20-25m/s at 850hPa and well mixed LL. Isolated tornadoes are also possible, probably maximized over W-Turkey and along all coastal areas, which were highlighted with a level 1. In addition, a local flash flood risk exists along the east coast of the Adriatic Sea.