Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 28 Dec 2009 06:00 to Tue 29 Dec 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 27 Dec 2009 19:38
Forecaster: DAHL

A level 1 was issued across the E Aegean and W Turkey mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A broad upper-level westerly flow exists over much of the forecast area with an imbedded trough affecting the eastern portions of central Europe and the Balkans/Aegean early in the period. Upstream, an extensive upper long-wave trough slowly approaches the Iberian Peninsula, supporting a broad warm-advection regime over SW Europe. The east-European trough as well as the Atlantic system are both accompanied by SFC low-pressure systems, while rather quiescent SFC conditions are prevailing elsewhere across Europe.

DISCUSSION

... Aegean region ... western Turkey ...

Some CAPE, quite robust shear and strong QG ascent should exist over the Aegean Sea and western Turkey in the first few hours of the forecast period. Thunderstorms will likely persist in this regime, some of them organized and capable of severe weather. Main threat should be marginally severe wind gusts and especially in the coastal regions a few tornadoes.

... western Iberia ... Gulf of Biscay ...

Models indicate minimal and rather shallow CAPE over the western Iberian Peninsula and over the Gulf of Biscay. Though allover shear will be rather intense, shear magnitude in the cloud-bearing layer seems to be rather low. In addition, the convection will likely be elevated. Severe-weather threat is thus anticipated to be rather low.