Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 30 Oct 2009 06:00 to Sat 31 Oct 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 29 Oct 2009 20:03
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Robust ridging atop most parts of Europe persists throughout the forecast. A progressive trough, affecting Ireland and Scotland during the late night hours and another one over SE-Europe spark isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Sticking with the ingredient based forecasting method, nothing severe is expected, next to strong wind gusts over Ireland and Scotland.

A prolonged (mostly stratiform in nature) rainfall event evolves around Istanbul and southwestwards during the forecast. Convective coverage increases during the night but expected strength and late increase of thunderstorm probabilities preclude a level 1 for now. Nevertheless, a 20m/s front parallel LLJ and a more or less stalling boundary point to isolated high rain amounts.