Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 26 Oct 2009 06:00 to Tue 27 Oct 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 25 Oct 2009 20:16
Forecaster: DAHL

A level one has been issued across the Ionian and Aegean regions mainly for excessive convective rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

Strongly meandering upper frontal zone is stretching from the Atlantic across the northern parts of Europe. A high-amplitude trough with an attendant extensive SFC low will reach W Europe late in the period. Downstream, a short-wave trough will move from S Scandinavia into eastern Europe, undergoing some amplification. Although a weak SFC low persists over the Baltic Sea, no appreciable cyclogenesis is anticipated to accompany this feature. A weakening deep-layer cyclonic circulation persists over the SE Mediterranean Sea. Otherwise, synoptic-scale SFC conditions are rather quiescent.

DISCUSSION

... Ionian Sea ... Aegean Sea ... S Balkans ...

Scattered thunderstorms should persist over the SE Medieterrenean in a weakly unstable and rather weakly-sheared environment. Storms will likely organize into multicellular storms with the main threat being heavy convective rainfall. Isolated marginally severe hail/winds canot not be ruled out, however. An additional severe threat exists over the water and near the coasts where strong lo-lwvel buoyancy may favor waterspouts.

... Poland ... Czech Republic ...

There seems to be some possibility of convective development in association with the S-Scandinvian upper trough. It seems that a narrow cold-frontal rainband may develop at the leading edge of the cold front, mainly affecting Poland and the Czech Republic during the day. However, forcing seems to be too weak for a well-organized/deep system, so that it currently appears that neither lightning nor severe weather will accompany this system.

... eastern North Sea ... Denmark ...

In the wake of the cold front, cellular polar-air convection is likely, capable of isolated lightning flashes. Severe threat with this activity should be quite low.