Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 09 Sep 2009 06:00 to Thu 10 Sep 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 08 Sep 2009 22:36
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for Northwestern Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation.
SYNOPSIS
An intense low pressure system will track towards the coastal areas of Norway with intense wind fields. Strong jet on the periphery of the low has a speed over 60 m/s at 500 hPa and over 80 m/s at 300 hPa. By the end of forecast period, low is expected to reach the northern tip of Scandinavia and turn eastwards. An elongated ridge will cover most of Southwestern, Central and Eastern Europe, while a cut off low over Central Mediterranean will become a focus for shower / thunderstorm activity. At the surface, an extensive high will settle over most of Europe by Thursday morning, centered over the British Isles.
DISCUSSION
... Northern Sea, coastal areas of Norway...
The above-mentioned deep low will affect the area with widespread severe wind gusts over 25 m/s and even violent gusts over are 32 m/s not ruled out across central coastal parts of Norway. The threat will be the highest during the early Wednesday morning as the low will slowly lose its intensity during the day. Despite the fact, that very strong wind shear and prominent forcing are associated with the low, no organised convection is anticipated which would enhance the wind gust threat. Lack of organised convection is due to the missing instability in the areas, where favorable forcing and shear wil be present. Because of this, no Level threat is introduced albeit non-convective wind gusts should reach severe values.
... Northwestern Turkey...
An advection of moist, unstable airmass from the Black Sea and topographic uplift will result in numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the region, probably lasting the whole forecast period ( convective precipitation is being simulated till Thursday 06 UTC). Moreover, weak wind field should result in the slow storm movements and especially in mountainous areas a heavy rainfall event or two is not ruled. out.
