Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 12 Aug 2009 06:00 to Thu 13 Aug 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 12 Aug 2009 05:33
Forecaster: PUCIK

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A prevailing northwesterly flow is observed at mid-levels across most of Europe and is expected to persist also during the forecast period. Embedded in this flow, an impulse is forecast to develop, associated with strong QG forcing. Impulse will affect Western and Central Europe in the evening and night hours, reaching northern Poland by 06Z. At the surface, a large low pressure system over Scandinavia is expected to stay without any significant changes. A ridge from the Azorian high will influence the weather across Western / Southwestern Europe. Weakening cold front, that is positioned as of Wednesday 5 UTC across Baltic states, Ukraine, Romania and Greece will slightly move eastwards. Some thunderstorm activity is anticipated in vicinity of this front.

Generally speaking, no organised, severe thunderstorm activity is forecast across Europe and no Level is introduced at the moment.

Most of the thunderstorm activity is forecast across southern Scandinavia and Baltic Sea, where a polar airmass destabilizes during the day with several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE available. Sub-severe hail might occur in stronger multicellular storms. Diurnally driven thunderstorms might form over Northern Italy, Pyrenees and Greece (in the latter case with the aid of the cold front).