Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 31 Jul 2009 06:00 to Sat 01 Aug 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 30 Jul 2009 12:45
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Another upper trough approaches Europe from the west during the period. Downstream, geopotential heights increase which causes more stable conditions over W-/CNTRL-Europe. Weak upper troughs over E-Europe result in unstable conditions with showers and thunderstorms. The Mediterranean (not the sea) remains hot and dry.

Numerous general thunderstorm areas were issued. Either diurnal driven, forced by topography or by an approaching frontal system, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast. Neither shear nor instability justify any level areas. Marginal hail and strong wind gusts are the main risk.

Isolated large hail can occur over N-Italy with 15m/s DLS but better CAPE release is displaced to the south.

An isolated tornado event is possible over extreme NW-Spain and along the W-coast of Portugal during the morning hours (1st August) as LL shear increases, but thunderstorm coverage and marginal instability/shear overlap preclude a level area.