Forecast Update
Valid: Wed 15 Jul 2009 14:00 to Thu 16 Jul 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 15 Jul 2009 14:15
Forecaster: ESTOFEX

A level 2 was issued for large parts of the Czech Republic, southern Poland, northern and eastern Austria, and western Slovakia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the Czech Republic, parts of Poland, Germany, and across the Alps, mainly for large hail, excessive rain and for severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of the Meshcher Lowland and the Volga River Basin, mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

Refer to the convective forecast

DISCUSSION

As temperatures have risen to around 30 C and dew point temperatures over 20 C are observed in a zone north and east of the Alps, and into Poland, over 2000 J/kg MCLAPE should be available in this region. Ahead of a vorticity maximum over Tyrol, numerous convective storms are developing, that will likely become primarily well-organized multicells, and perhaps a few supercells. The main threat of these storms will be large or very large hail with a few reports of hail around 5 cm in diameter quite possible. Additonally, a number of damaging downbusts is likely as well. As widespread convection is occurring a bit further south than was originally anticipated, the level 2 area has been extended accordingly. During the evening and overnight, the storms will likely cluster more, and their overall activity should gradually diminish. By then, excessive rainfall could become a problem over Poland, though.