Forecast Update
Valid: Sat 13 Jun 2009 12:00 to Sun 14 Jun 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 13 Jun 2009 11:30
Forecaster: DAHL

A level 1 was issued across northern France mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 was issued across estreme western Russia and extreme southern Finland mainly for heavy precipitation, severe wind gusts, and large hail, and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

Refer to convective forecast from 12 June 2009.

DISCUSSION

Some minor adjustments to the forecast from Friday:

Low-level shear across southern Finland and parts of western Russia exceeds 10 m/s per latest model guidance, suggesting that an additional threat for tornadoes exists. Especially as the air mass seems to be weakly capped. However, rather weak DLS should limit allover severe threat, so an upgrade to LVL2 does not seem to be warranted at the moment.

Minor adjustments have been made to the French threat area, to accomodate for the recent convective development. Allover scenario remains unchanged, however.