Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 02 Jun 2009 06:00 to Wed 03 Jun 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 02 Jun 2009 04:50
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 2 was issued for Serbia, N Bulgaria and S Romania mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and possibly a tornado.
A level 1 was issued for the Baltic countries, W Belarus and part of Russia mainly for locally excessive precipitation and an isolated landspout.
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure at surface level is present over the eastern half of Europe and the Iberian peninsula. Upper (or mid level) shortwave troughs provide deep lifting and destabilization over NE Spain, S Scandinavia, Italy through Moldova (along the east flank of the major upper trough) and around the dissipating cold pool tracking from Poland northeastward over a stationary Baltic/Russian warm front.
DISCUSSION
...Serbia, N Bulgaria and S Romania...
Moderate instability, shear and strong lift combine today in this region. GFS predicts MLCAPE>1000 J/kg and ICAPE>2 MJ/mē in the left exit region of a 40 m/s jet. The situation resembles that of 2008/04/22 rather well. While DLS is 15-20 m/s in the most unstable area, 0-3 km SREH predicted by GFS and WRF models ranges between 150 and 400 mē/sē, and so supercells are likely, with a chance of (very) large hail and severe gusts. 0-1 km LLS is rather good and increases during the evening, and together with the SREH and LCL heights below 1000m the chance of one or more tornadoes is present. Initial cellular storms can coagulate into one or two MCSses, which in delta-theta-e >15K environment and favorable wind profiles for forward propagation can cause damaging winds.
...Baltic area...
Storms are predicted to develop along a stationary boundary, in weak flow, with LCL heights below 1200m. Slow storm propagation, weak cold pools and continuous presence of upper lifting in GFS suggests high local precipitation sums are possible which could lead to flash floods. In addition, if we assume GFS low-level CAPE (0-3 km) in the weak flow, spout type tornadoes/funnels are not ruled out, in particular where vertical vorticity preexists along the convergence zone.
