Forecast Update
Valid: Thu 07 May 2009 17:00 to Fri 08 May 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 07 May 2009 17:49
Forecaster: PUCIK / GROENEMEIJER

A level 1was issued for France mainly for large hail and isolated severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Refer to the previous storm forecast.

DISCUSSION

...France...

Level 1 had to be expanded to NE as a moderately unstable airmass has spread over France and wind shear is strenghtening over the region. Per GFS, it should reach 20 m/s by evening and also marginal SREH values around 150 J/kg are simulated. Radar measurements have already shown that well organised multicells and possibly supercells have formed over the area. Large hail will be the primary threat, but severe wind gusts are not ruled either, in connection with downdrafts in supercells.

....Western Black Sea region...

Level 1 was cancelled as storms have already left the region and no threat is expected during the next hours.