Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 04 May 2009 06:00 to Tue 05 May 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 03 May 2009 19:20
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS

The flow over central and eastern parts of Europe is rather weak. Ahead of a mid/upper trough initially stretching from the Norwegian Sea to the western Alps, a cold front stretches from the Baltic Sea to Austria. An associated surface low is located over Svealand. As the cold front moves east to southeastward and reaches a line from Finland across the Baltic States to the eastern Alps and northern Italy. Another upper-level low, initially over Sicily moves eastward and reaches the Aegean Sea on tusday morning.

DISCUSSION

Po-Valley, northern Appennines...

GFS and ECWMF consitently develop about 1000 J/kg of CAPE Monday afternoon, which despite the weak shear will likely lead to a few thunderstorms. These could produce some small hail, but should generally not be severe. Therefore no threat level will be issued.

Wrn, Srn, and central Balkans...

Relatively steep low-level lapse rates over the Balkans suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area, despite relatively modest low-level moisture. Given that wind shear will be weak and CAPE relatively small, no severe storms are expected.