Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 03 May 2009 06:00 to Mon 04 May 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 03 May 2009 05:32
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat level was issued.

SYNOPSIS

Some weak upper level disturbances are initially located over the Adriatic Sea and the western Black Sea region. On the southeastern flank of the Adriatic low, a region with some DCVA is forecast to move southward towards Sicily. At lower levels, high pressure extends from the N-central Atlantic towards central Europe and the NE Baltic States. A well-defined upper trough over the North Sea will move across southern Scandinavia during the period.

DISCUSSION

...S-central Italy...

Ahead of the approaching upper low, CAPE in order of 400 J/kg should be present and thunderstorms will develop in an environment with deep layer shear in order of 10 - 15 m/s. Isolated large hail is not completely ruled out but a risk area does not seem to be necessary

...E Mediterranean / Crete...

Some low-end instability is expected to be created along a frontal boundary that stretches from eastern Libya towards Cyprus in a region with some DCVA. There will be some - mostly weak - thunderstorms within the precipitation area but the propagation velocity is very low which may lead to local flooding. Further west, effective precipitation signals should be best but most of the precipitation is expected to be stratiform and therefore no risk area is drawn.

...Finland / NW Russia...

Ahead of an upper shortwave trough centered over N Finland, diurnal heating will lead to about 500 J/kg CAPE. About 10 - 15 m/s deep layer shear should be in place and some storms might produce isolated hail that could be marginally severe. However, a broad region with DCVA will likely result in clustered storms that should not be able to produce severe weather apart from local flooding.