Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 27 Apr 2009 06:00 to Tue 28 Apr 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 26 Apr 2009 20:53
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

A longwave trough is located over western Europe and a ridge over eastern Europe. Within the trough, a mid- upper cyclone located near the Balearic Isles moves eastward and reaches central Italy on Tuesday morning. Ahead of the mid/upper-level cyclone, an initally weak surface cyclone over the northern Tyrrhenean Sea is expected to deepen significantly. Another cyclone filled with cold air moves from the Atlantic southeastward across the SWern British Isles to reach France on Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Italy...

Upslope flow and ascent due to DCVA is expected to create an episode of heavy rain, mostly non-convective, across the southern Alpine flanks and the Po-Valley. Amounts locally in excess of 100 mm could lead to problems. Further south, in vicinity of the system's cold front, some convective storms are expected. Moderately strong wind shear and weak CAPE suggest not more than a low risk of severe weather will exist, that doesn't warrant a level 1.