Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 21 Apr 2009 06:00 to Wed 22 Apr 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 21 Apr 2009 02:14
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

A complex weather pattern is in place around a low over Italy, centered over the Thyrrenian Sea. Very low CAPE values are found in patches throughout the Mediterranean Sea, and more significant patches over Italy, Balkan and the west and north sides of the Alps. There is not much forcing other than orographic and weak convergence lines. Exception is the region around Greece, where a cold front in association with a rather vigorous shortwave trough passes between 15Z-06Z.

DISCUSSION

...Greece, western Turkey....

It appears that ground-based instability will be capped (large LFC-LCL differences) but elevated instability can be released. Shear is also moderate here and has a large component perpendicular to the cold front (>12 m/s 0-3 km) , but the thinking is that it will not be effective if convection remains elevated. If it does become a surface-based convective line there would be a chance of severe wind gusts in the Aegean Sea area during the Wednesday early morning hours.