Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 05 Apr 2009 06:00 to Mon 06 Apr 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 04 Apr 2009 21:13
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

High-over-low block exists over Europe, with an upper low over the central Mediterranean Sea, and a weakening, eastward traveling upper high over central parts of Europe. At low levels, quiescent synoptic conditions are expected to persist over most of Europe.

DISCUSSION

... central parts of Europe, Italy, W Balkans ...

It seems that mainly diurnally driven storms will develop from Italy and the Balkans into central Germany in a marginally unstable and weakly capped air mass. Given weak shear and minimal thermodynamic support, organized severe evolution is unlikely.

... W Turkey ... E Aegean ...

Strong large-scale forcing for ascent is anticipated at the E periphery of the Mediterranean upper low, which should maintain scattered/imbedded storms over the Aegean region and W Turkey. South of Turkey, 20 m/s DLS is expected late Sunday night, which will be supportive of storm organization, resulting in some threat for severe wind gusts and possibly marginally severe hail, especially if mesocyclones form.