Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 31 Mar 2009 06:00 to Wed 01 Apr 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 31 Mar 2009 02:19
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

A zonally elongated area of high pressure is centered between 47-57°N and causes stable weather. Low pressure areas are present over Scandinavia and the western Mediterranean Sea. The core of this low is initially near SE Spain, but it is predicted that a wave will develop along the cold front north of Algeria and the low pressure center will likely install near the Balearic islands. ECWMF model shows the core to take a more eastern track via Sardegna. LCL-LFC distance and MLCAPE/ICAPE differences suggest convection can be elevated within the warm plume and more surface-based towards the west.

DISCUSSION

...western Mediterranean area, Tunisia...

Most storms will occur along the cold front and warm sector moving north during the day. In the region deep layer shear is forecast to be around 15 m/s, which supports mainly multicell clusters. Marginal large hail may occur, however the main issue can become rainfall when repeated storm activity affects Sardegna and Corsica.
In particular over northern Tunisia, deep layer shear is enhanced to 30 m/s with SREH higher than 300 m²/s². Supercells with chance of large hail and a tornado are possible.