Forecast Update
Valid: Tue 17 Mar 2009 22:00 to Wed 18 Mar 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 17 Mar 2009 22:39
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
An update of the forecast has been issued, valid till 06Z tonight. For a synoptic description refer to the earlier written forecast.
DISCUSSION
...S Poland, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Hungary, W Romania, N Croatia, NW Serbia...
Convective activity over Poland has increased, even though very slight CAPE values can be found in GFS. Most-unstable EL temperatures combined with PV and QG vertical forcing maps suggest the area between Poland and Serbia will see continued electrified convective activity.
Given 40 m/s (!) 0-6 km shear and over 15 m/s 0-1 km shear, as well as somewhat enhanced SREH >100 mē/sē, it is possible that a tornado can be produced. Also up to 2 cm hailstones are not excluded.
