Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 17 Mar 2009 06:00 to Wed 18 Mar 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 17 Mar 2009 06:22
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

At the northeast flank of a large high pressure area over North Sea / Bretagne (sfc/mid) low pressure systems affect Scandinavia and enter eastern Europe via Poland with a cold, marginally unstable maritime airmass.
Isolated lightning can be produced along the Norwegian coast, as well as during the afternoon over the SE tip of Sweden and western Poland, where a strong mid level PV
maximum will provide lift together with some diurnal heating. Baltic Sea predicted ELs are also cold, but cold SST will not help convection.

DISCUSSION

The Polish area should be monitored closely, as a strong jet and low level shear greater than 17 m/s are forecast by GFS, with potential tornadogenesis... however, the poor postfrontal CAPE signals and low absolute humidity may not be sufficient to create reasonable storms in the first place. Gusts up to 20 m/s should be possible given the strong wind fields.