Forecast Update
Valid: Fri 13 Mar 2009 14:00 to Sat 14 Mar 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 13 Mar 2009 13:16
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the outlook, issued at Thu 12 Mar 2009 16:25UTC.

DISCUSSION

... E-Austria, Hungary,E-Slovenia and Croatia, E-Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia ...

12Z soundings over E-Austria and Hungary reveal steep lapse rates, minimal CAPE release, low dewpoints and unidirectional NW-erstly flow. A 40-45m/s mid-level streak, currently placed over S-Austria/Slovenia and Crotia, spreads southwards. Attendant left exit now affects area of interest, especially Hungary and SE-wards. Convection is on the increase and conditions look supportive for strong showers/a few thunderstorms in those areas. Mid-levels in the left exit region cool down slightly, some diabatic heating helped to push surface temperatures to near 10°C and locally better moisture/orographic lift could result in a few short-lived storms. However, expected coverage seems too low for a such a broad thunderstorm area. Marginal hail/gusty winds are the main risk.

No change to the rest of the outlook.