Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 02 Mar 2009 06:00 to Tue 03 Mar 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 01 Mar 2009 15:31
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Among a decaying upper trough over SW-Europe, an extensive cyclonic vortex north of Ireland/Scotland and a strong cold-core low over E-Europe, a shallow upper ridge is placed over central Europe. Mid-levels over all but the extreme southern parts of Europe are cold, which gets reflected in the overall good looking lapse rates at mid-levels. The quality of the surface airmass over W/central Europe is marginal at best, but still conducive for isolated initiation. Showers and isolated thunderstorms could evolve over the northern parts of the west/central Mediterranean, Spain, Portugal and west of the Strait of Gibraltar. Storms, which evolve onshore are highly daytime driven features whereas thunderstorm development offshore is possible all day long. Marginal hail and strong wind gusts are the main risk due to the lack of better instability/shear. We did not include all of those regions into a general thunderstorm area as confidence in higher thunderstorm coverage is low.

An intense cold front from Greenland approaches Scotland and Ireland during the afternoon/evening hours. Temperatures at 500hPa drop to -40°C or below, so convection will be widespread. Showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible but expected coverage does not justify an highlighted area.