Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 27 Feb 2009 06:00 to Sat 28 Feb 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 26 Feb 2009 22:16
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A deep quasi-stationary large-scale upper trough persists over eastern Europe, extending well into the eastern Mediterranean. A vort max imbedded in the northwesterly flow at the western periphery of the large-scale trough will cross the Adriatic and Ionian Seas Friday evening/night. The upward motion associated with this feature is simulated to increase the depth of instability over this area, likely to result in scattered thunderstorms. Deep shear should be on the order of 15 m/s, which should be too weak for an appreciable severe threat in the light of the poor instability. Low-level lapse rates are simulated to be in the 15 to 20 K/km range which points towards some waterspout potential. However, the anticipated relatively fast storm motion may limit updraft residence times over miso-vortices, which could limit the waterspout threat. Allover severe potential currently appears to be too low for a categorical risk.