Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 25 Feb 2009 06:00 to Thu 26 Feb 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 25 Feb 2009 00:33
Forecaster: PUCIK

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A deep mid and upper level trough is still dominating the weather conditions across the most of Eastern and Southern Europe. New short-wave trough, surrounded by strong flow is expected to affect Northern Europe by the Wednesday evening. At the surface, a large ridge of high pressure will extend across the 50° latitude from Atlantic into Central Europe, separating the low pressure areas over the Mediterranean Sea and Scandinavia.

Most of Europe is under stable, cool and dry airmass, inhibiting any chance for thunderstorm development. Marginal destabilization is expected in the areas under the base of the trough with sufficient synoptic-scale lift provided by few impulses rotating around it. The most robust instability release is expected over the southern waters of Turkey, where the advection of warmer and moister airmass will take place ahead of the surface low. Despite low values of instability, simulated EL temperatures are well below -20°C and lightning can be expected with the developing convective cells. No severe weather is anticipated but sub-severe hail is not ruled out due to the overall cold profiles, as well as a chance of a waterspout, thanks to the high degree of low-level instability and low LCLs. The coastal areas of Turkey may also experience significant rainfall with the training cells over this area.