Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 22 Feb 2009 06:00 to Mon 23 Feb 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 21 Feb 2009 16:55
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

A broad ridge is located over the eastern north Atlantic ocean and a broad trouhg over the eastern half of Europe. The trough contains several (potential) vorticity maxima. One is initially located over southwestern Norway and moves southeastward to reach western Poland on Tuesday morning. Another one over the western Balkans moves onto the Aegean Sea. Yet a third PV maximum lifts north from the eastern Ukraine across the central Russian Upland.

DISCUSSION

Ionian and Aegean Sea...

The flow across the Mediterranean generally has a northerly direction and advects cold, dry air across the lukewarm Mediterranean Sea. Low-level moisture appears not to be sufficient in most places to sustain deep, moist convection, except where the fetch over the moist water is long and upper-level support is present. This appears to be the case near and ahead of the (potential) vorticity maximum that moves from western Balkans onto the Aegean Sea. More specifically, some deeper convective storms are expected to develop on Sunday over portions of the Ionean Sea and western and souther parts of the Aegean Sea. Considering that CAPE and shear in the lowest 3 kilometres rather weak, the chance that these storms will be severe appears to be small. An isolated waterspout over the western Aegean Sea cannot be ruled out though. The storms most likely to produce lightning are expected over the western and southern Aegean sea as well, where storm tops are expected to be the highest and coolest.