Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 20 Feb 2009 12:00 to Sat 21 Feb 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 20 Feb 2009 12:04
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A deep upper long-wave trough persists over central and eastern Europe, which accordingly remains under the influence of polar air masses. A strongly positively-tilted upper ridge over the Atlantic should continue to build towards western Europe, while a weakening upper low persists over the E Atlantic just off the Iberian/Moroccan west coasts. The latter feature will likely support scattered thunderstorms over SW Spain and S Portugal, but weak thermodynamics as well as minimal shear suggest that the severe threat will be quite low. Comparatively shallow convection should continue over the SE Mediterranean as well as over Turkey. Shear in the cloud-bearing layer is marginal, but may suffice for an isolated marginally severe hail/wind event. The allover severe threat is too low for a categorical outlook, however.