Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 18 Feb 2009 06:00 to Thu 19 Feb 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 17 Feb 2009 22:58
Forecaster: PUCIK

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A blocking situation will continue over the European continent with the deep trough centered over Central Europe and a large ridge over E Atlantic. An outbreak of cold and dry arctic air will be ongoing on the back side of the trough, reaching the Mediterranean Sea by Wednesday morning. An associated cold front will move to SE / SSE with cyclogenesis expected over the Adriatic Sea, as an mid-level impulse will move over the area. The surface low is expected to move eastwards while deepening and its center is expected to be located in the northern part of the Aegean Sea.

Most of Europe will be under stable conditions and no significant thunderstorm activity is expected. Marginal destabilization will occur ahead of the advancing cold front over the Ionian Sea, thanks to the frontal circulation and upward motion induced by the mid-level cut off low. Another area of low-end instability will be placed near the coastline of Turkey, where an advection of warmer and moister airmass is expected thanks to the strenghtening southerly flow ahead of the surface low. MLCAPEs should stay under 500 J/kg in all of the above mentioned areas, but strong lift may compensate for this and some isolated thunderstorms will probably form , especially around the western coasts of Turkey. With lack of sufficient wind shear, storms should stay disorganised and will pose no risk of severe weather. Some sub-severe hail might occur, however, due to the cold profiles and low freezing levels.