Forecast Update
Valid: Fri 06 Feb 2009 10:00 to Sat 07 Feb 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 06 Feb 2009 10:25
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the main outlook issued at Thu 05 Feb 2009 15:55UTC.

DISCUSSION

...Ionian Sea ...

Thunderstorms evolved around 7Z south of Italy. The most organized looking feature was a thunderstorm cluster, developing at ~7Z just east of Sicily, moving towards the east. The presentation on latest satellite images remains good as this cluster experiences moderate shear, more than 500 J/kg MLCAPE and a moist inflow from the south. The weak short wave, which helped to spark those storms, is clearly visible in WV loops and should help to sustain the current cluster and support continuous initiation over the highlighted area. Shear and instability but also current presentation of the storm cluster raise the confidence of isolated large hail and strong to isolated severe wind gusts. Regarding the tornado risk, directional shear increases rapidly along the coastal areas, but instability diminishes at the same rate. In addition, LL airmass remains warm and moist so LL CAPE release is low but so are the LCLs. So there will be a low-end risk of an isolated tornado event along the coast in the level-1 area. Thunderstorms decrease in coverage and intensity from west to east.

The same low-end large hail/strong wind gust and very isolated tornado risk arises along the W-coast of Turkey during the morning hours.

Some modifications were done over Italy and SE of Spain but otherwise there is no significant deviation of yesterday's outlook.